2017 is about to pass. In 2018, the regulation and control policies of the property market have become the topic of public concern. On the 23rd, Minister of Housing and Construction Wang Menghui stated at the National Conference on Construction of Urban and Rural Housing that next year it will implement differentiated control policies for various types of needs, meet the first set of just-needed needs, support improved demand, and curb speculative real estate. At the same time, the task of destocking went deeper and further into the new phase of inventory in the county.
Regulatory efforts are not relaxed: maintaining policy continuity
In 2017, according to Centaline Real Estate Research Center, up to now, 110 cities across the country have issued more than 250 control policies.
Through measures such as restrictions on purchases, limited loans, restrictions on sales, restrictions on sales, and restrictions on business, the national property market has cooled this year and continues to remain stable. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that since the beginning of May, prices in Shanghai and Beijing have seen a “zero increase” compared to the previous month, and Shenzhen’s housing prices have fallen month-on-month. By November, the price of new homes in 11 hot-spot cities fell back a year ago, and transactions in hot-street cities have cooled down significantly.
Implement the latest deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference. Turning to the regulation of the property market next year, Wang Menghui emphasized that he insists on unshakeable control and unremitting efforts, improves the long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, maintains the continuity and stability of the real estate market control policy, and does a good job in the classification of the real estate market. Regulation and control to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
“The regulation and control goals of the balanced development of the property market will not change.” Lou Jianbo, director of the Real Estate Law Research Center of Peking University, told the reporter of the China New Network that the continuity and stability of the regulation and control policies can be achieved only by implementing the “differentiation and control” of the “city-based policy”. However, specific measures will be adjusted as the market moves.
The National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference proposed that the real estate market order and rectification should be strengthened, market monitoring and analysis should be strengthened, and the ability and level of precision regulation and control should be enhanced to further strengthen the main responsibility of local governments.
Differentiation and control policies: support for improvement of demand curb real estate
Stressing that "adhering to the unremitting control of the regulatory objectives, the intensity is not relaxed," Wang Menghui said that next year will be targeted for various types of differentiated control policies to meet the first set just need, support to improve demand, curb speculation real estate.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the ThinkCentre Research Center of the Yiyi Research Institute, predicts that the first set of just-in-kind guidance will remain unchanged, and policies to support improvement of demand will be slightly relaxed. The determination of the first and second suites, and the division of ordinary and non-ordinary housing cannot be ruled out. Other aspects may be fine-tuned.
Severe restrictions on purchases and restrictions on loans in 2017 has become a standard means of tightening the property market in many cities. According to Centaline Property statistics, more than 50 cities have joined the restricted-restricted camp this year, and some city policies have even experienced multiple rounds of upgrades.
Taking Beijing as an example, the current down payment for the first suite is not less than 35%, the first set of non-ordinary self-contained housing is not less than 40%; the second set of houses “recognizes the housing and recognizes the loan”, and the average down payment for self-contained housing is not less than 60%. Ordinary self-construction down payment of not less than 80%; loan maximum period of 25 years. At the same time, the first housing mainstream commercial interest rate 1.1 times the implementation of the benchmark interest rate, the second suite is 1.2 times, limit purchase limit loan policy can be described as the country's most stringent.
Xie Yifeng, dean of the China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the policies of high-inventory, over-supply cities in the 23rd and 4th tiers may be fine-tuned. "For example, to cancel the first set of social security and taxation period requirements for non-household households, allow non-local residents to purchase a second set of improved housing, reduce the down payment ratio of first and second suites, lower the housing credit interest rate, and increase the demand and improvement. Housing tax deductions for housing needs."
Devoting Major Efforts to Long Term Leases: Accelerating the Promotion of Legislation Protecting Interests
According to the Central Economic Work Conference, “to develop the housing leasing market, especially long-term leasing.” The National Conference on Construction of Urban and Rural Housing proposes to speed up the development and development of the housing leasing market in large and medium-sized cities with a net inflow of population, and promote the construction of state-owned leasing enterprises. Support the development of specialized and institutionalized housing leasing companies, speed up the construction of a government-led housing rental management service platform, accelerate the promotion of housing leasing legislation, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of leasing stakeholders.
In fact, in the second half of 2017, the reform of the housing lease system has become a major event. The first batch of 12 cities launched a pilot program for housing leasing, and Super 50 cities across the country introduced policies to support housing leasing. Cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have increased the supply of rented houses such as self-sustained housing companies and collectively-owned housing, and have been implementing on-site housing rental service platforms.
“Protecting the interests of lease-related stakeholders is not only rent-purchase rights, but also the interests of both parties.” Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Research at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that developing a long-term lease market requires a mechanism to encourage market players. Willing to engage in long-term leasing business, such as taxation, land to take measures to protect the interests of enterprises developing self-contained housing.
“At the same time, it is necessary to stipulate the terms of the lease, and it is proposed that the lease period be three years. Unless the tenant proposes to terminate the contract, the lessor cannot terminate the lease early.” Ni Pengfei added that the current domestic laws and regulations on the protection of the interest of the lessee It is not clear enough that the lessor can freely increase rents, revoke contracts, limit the behavior of the lessee, and need to be bound.
Destocking work sinks: Shouxian county property market to inventory
At the same time, destocking is still one of the important tasks of the real estate market regulation in 2018. Wang Menghui pointed out that some third- and fourth-tier cities and counties that still have relatively large inventories must continue to do inventory work.
“The county-level destocking concept is an important content.” Yan Yuejin divided the delisting of the property market into three phases: before 2015, it was basically the first- and second-line key cities in the suburban market to inventory; 2016-2017 was the prefecture-level city (the third-tier cities) Destocking; 2018, ushered in the county to inventory.
At the press conference on the 14th of December, the spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics Mao Shengyong stated that the destocking in the third and fourth tier cities has progressed steadily, and the results have been more pronounced. From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing in the country increased by 7.9%. Although the speed has slowed down, it is also a good figure to increase on the basis of a high base of more than 20% last year.
Considering that the proportion of the county economy in the national urban economy is still relatively large, Yan Yuejin stated that the delisting of the county seat has a positive effect on the national real estate market transactions, and at the same time it also guards against the risk of a sharp decline in market transactions.
Xie Yifeng also stressed the importance of targeted destocking policy and stated that commercial real estate delisting is more urgent than de-stocking. "The risk of inventory over commercial real estate is higher than that of residential stocks. The focus of work in 2018 is not only the destocking of residential houses, but the key is the destocking of commercial real estate."